Thursday, October 17, 2019

"Watching" Netflix


On Wednesday, Netflix released its third quarter 2018 financial results.  With better than expected earnings per share and growth in international subscribers, the market reacted positively to the numbers in after-hours trading.  Somewhat disappointing was slower than expected growth in the number of domestic subscribers.  A year-over-year comparison of subscriber numbers shows

Subscribers
3Q2018
3Q2019
% Change
Domestic
58.5M
60.6M
3.6
International
80.8M
97.7M
20.1
Total
139.3M
158.3M
13.6

In the domestic market, with a price increase from earlier this year that elevated churn, increased competition from major media and technology firms that are launching niche streaming platforms, and a maturing market, Netflix will need to continue to spend heavily on original content ($15 billion in 2019) to hold onto its dominant market position.  While Netflix feels that its breadth of content is its competitive advantage, others (e.g. Disney, WarnerMedia, and NBCU Peacock) could argue the same.  And, while competition for consumers’ time in watching entertainment is not a winner-take-all enterprise, there are pocket-book constraints and consumers may choice to subscribe to just a few options and may be more willing to unsubscribe at times if the “must-watch” content is not there. Hence, acquiring and retaining subscribers will be harder to do domestically.  Thankfully, Netflix has some room to run internationally.  And, its commitment to creating more programming in languages other than English will give it a leg-up on these other competitors.  


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