What to expect in 2019: Net Neutrality

In the next week or so on this blog, I want to look at major issues in the media/telecom space and predict, with some analysis, what might happen in 2019.  First up is net neutrality. 

What will the new Congress, comprised of a Republican majority in the Senate and now a Democrat majority in the House mean to changes in net neutrality rules/regulations?  The answer…. nothing.  While federal legislation may pass the Senate with help from the three Republican senators who voted last year in favor of overturning the FCC’s net neutrality decision using the Congressional Review Authority (CRA) and it will pass in the House with the Democrats pushing it through, President Trump will support FCC Chairman Pai and veto the legislation.  That means nothing changes at the federal level until at least 2021 when there is possible change in the White House.  By then, a reassessment of the web landscape will be necessary and may make the rules as proscribed in 2015-2017 unnecessary or different.

That leaves things up to the states.  Last January, twenty-one states* and the District of Columbia filed a protective petition for review in the United States Court of Appeals, D.C., seeking a determination that the FCC’s Restoring Internet Freedom Order “is arbitrary, capricious, and an abuse of discretion…” and therefore request that the Court “hold unlawful, vacate, enjoin, and set aside the Order”.  This case is expected to go to oral arguments before three judges (1 Republican and 2 Democratic appointees) in February.   The decision will provide a critical pivot point on the issue.  If the states win, expect a continuation of EOs and laws passed and enacted at the state level, particularly in BLUE states.  If the FCC wins, expect more court battles, particularly on whether the FCC can preempt states from enacting their own net neutrality rules.  (Note: in 2018, a handful of states signed Executive Orders (EOs) and passed legislation that advanced net neutrality principles.  Except for Vermont, the small number of states that passed EOs and laws had democratic governors.)

http://www.ncsl.org/research/telecommunications-and-information-technology/net-neutrality-legislation-in-states.aspx

Signees of Protective Petition for Review*

	Governor
State	Rep	Dem
California		1
Connecticut		1
Delaware		1
Hawaii		1
Illinois		1
Iowa	1
Kentucky	1
Maine		1
Maryland	1
Massachusetts	1
Minnesota		1
Mississippi	1
New Mexico		1
New York		1
North Carolina		1
Oregon		1
Pennsylvania		1
Rhode Island		1
Vermont	1
Virginia		1
Washington		1
D.C.
	6	15